Early-vote firewall · unofficial

The early-vote firewall

The firewall is the number of early votes cast by Democratic-labeled voters minus those cast by Republican-labeled voters. Each voter's label comes from primary voting history and voter-file party models. It shows who has voted so far, not how anyone voted. It is not a vote count, a result or a forecast.

through Day 4 · Oct 22, 2026 · in person and mail

Democratic-labeled voters lead by 87,768

33.5% of the 262,355 early votes cast

Democratic-labeled: 155,343 (59.2%)Republican-labeled: 67,575 (25.8%)Unaffiliated: 32,934 (12.6%)No label: 6,503 (2.5%)

An early-vote lead does not account for who still has to vote. People who have not voted yet, early or on Election Day, may lean differently from those who already have.

Same day, three elections (in person)

2022 and 2024 have no day-by-day mail data, so the like-for-like comparison uses in-person early votes only.

2026

through Day 4 · Oct 22, 2026 · this year

D +83,437

33.6% of 248,068 in-person votes

Democratic-labeled: 146,926 (59.2%)Republican-labeled: 63,489 (25.6%)Unaffiliated: 31,901 (12.9%)No label: 5,752 (2.3%)

2024

through Day 4 · Oct 24, 2024 · same point

D +42,520

19.5% of 218,043 in-person votes

Democratic-labeled: 114,670 (52.6%)Republican-labeled: 72,150 (33.1%)Unaffiliated: 24,812 (11.4%)No label: 6,411 (2.9%)

2022

through Day 4 · Oct 27, 2022 · same point

D +25,665

18.8% of 136,771 in-person votes

Democratic-labeled: 72,633 (53.1%)Republican-labeled: 46,968 (34.3%)Unaffiliated: 6,655 (4.9%)No label: 10,515 (7.7%)

Day by day

Cumulative firewall after each day of early voting (in person). “Final” adds in-person Election Day votes for 2022 and 2024.

2026: D +83,437 (33.6%) · 2024: D +42,520 (19.5%) · 2022: D +25,665 (18.8%) — Day 4

All the numbers

2026 · in person and mail

Day	Votes	D-labeled	R-labeled	Unaffiliated	No label	Firewall	Share
1	89,470	56,944	22,078	8,434	2,014	D +34,866	39.0%
2	154,670	95,774	38,922	16,449	3,525	D +56,852	36.8%
3	212,114	128,310	54,044	24,691	5,069	D +74,266	35.0%
4	262,355	155,343	67,575	32,934	6,503	D +87,768	33.5%

2026 · in person

Day	Votes	D-labeled	R-labeled	Unaffiliated	No label	Firewall	Share
1	77,853	49,865	18,859	7,686	1,443	D +31,006	39.8%
2	142,937	88,690	35,702	15,700	2,845	D +52,988	37.1%
3	199,029	120,554	50,339	23,807	4,329	D +70,215	35.3%
4	248,068	146,926	63,489	31,901	5,752	D +83,437	33.6%

2024 · in person

Day	Votes	D-labeled	R-labeled	Unaffiliated	No label	Firewall	Share
1	56,341	31,738	17,967	5,132	1,504	D +13,771	24.4%
2	113,035	61,833	37,091	10,996	3,115	D +24,742	21.9%
3	167,166	89,238	55,497	17,606	4,825	D +33,741	20.2%
4	218,043	114,670	72,150	24,812	6,411	D +42,520	19.5%
5	275,290	143,214	89,044	34,589	8,443	D +54,170	19.7%
6	328,761	171,097	101,985	45,315	10,364	D +69,112	21.0%
7	353,683	183,906	107,675	50,879	11,223	D +76,231	21.6%
8	407,582	209,743	122,538	62,058	13,243	D +87,205	21.4%
9	458,261	233,220	136,413	73,455	15,173	D +96,807	21.1%
10	509,303	256,852	148,791	86,498	17,162	D +108,061	21.2%
11	558,267	279,130	159,688	100,259	19,190	D +119,442	21.4%
12	633,141	312,921	173,743	124,053	22,424	D +139,178	22.0%
Final	820,821	386,642	203,657	199,334	31,188	D +182,985	22.3%

2022 · in person

Day	Votes	D-labeled	R-labeled	Unaffiliated	No label	Firewall	Share
1	32,596	17,086	11,819	1,446	2,245	D +5,267	16.2%
2	69,841	36,759	24,948	3,075	5,059	D +11,811	16.9%
3	104,255	55,365	36,280	4,789	7,821	D +19,085	18.3%
4	136,771	72,633	46,968	6,655	10,515	D +25,665	18.8%
5	162,579	85,844	55,410	8,640	12,685	D +30,434	18.7%
6	186,856	99,467	61,965	10,735	14,689	D +37,502	20.1%
7	198,341	106,093	64,681	11,867	15,700	D +41,412	20.9%
8	229,341	122,572	73,953	14,295	18,521	D +48,619	21.2%
9	260,058	138,310	83,350	17,000	21,398	D +54,960	21.1%
10	293,302	155,498	93,018	20,351	24,435	D +62,480	21.3%
11	336,270	178,033	104,255	25,370	28,612	D +73,778	21.9%
12	391,328	206,920	117,250	33,120	34,038	D +89,670	22.9%
Final	603,657	297,776	171,600	76,982	57,299	D +126,176	20.9%

What it would take

If unaffiliated voters split the way they did in past county-wide judicial races (about 55% Republican), the 262,355 early votes cast so far would come out about 33.4% Republican and 66.6% Democratic, a gap of about 86,892 votes.

To close the firewall among votes already cast, Republican-labeled and Republican-leaning voters would need 161% of the unaffiliated and unlabeled votes. That is more than 100%, so the gap cannot close among votes already cast.

If total turnout matches 2024 (858,562 ballots), about 596,207 ballots are still to come. Republican-labeled and Republican-leaning voters would need to win them by about 14.6 points to even the county-wide total.

Has this read the outcome before?

Same method, past elections: the in-person firewall on a given day, with unaffiliated voters split about 55/45 Republican, compared with the final Republican share in contested county-wide district judge races.

Election	Day 4 estimate (R)	Final result (R)	Miss
2024	40.5%	39.6%	+0.9
2022	40.1%	39.1%	+1.0

Average miss: 0.9 points on Day 4; 0.7 points over all 12 days; 0.6 points at the end of early voting. Early days run less reliably (Day 1 missed by 1.7 and 2.4 points).

Method and sources

Sources: Dallas County Elections' public early-voting rosters (2022, 2024, 2026), matched privately to party labels. Only county-wide totals are published; no voter-level data is shown or shared.
Party labels come from primary voting history and voter-file party models: the most recent March primary a voter took part in (2026, then 2024); if none, a modeled party. Voters modeled as swing count as unaffiliated. “No label” means the voter could not be matched.
Day 4 is the same early-voting day each year (early voting starts on a Monday each time). 2026 mail ballots are counted by the day they were returned; ones returned before Day 1 count on Day 1.
The headline includes 2026 mail ballots (county totals). The year-to-year comparison and the chart use in-person votes only, because 2022 and 2024 have no day-by-day mail data.

Gaps

A label shows a voter's past primary or modeled party, not how they will vote in November. Many labeled voters cross over.
In March 2026, about 2.7 times as many people voted in the Democratic primary as in the Republican primary (about 1.2 times in 2024). More voters carry a Democratic label in 2026 for that reason alone, so the 2026 firewall is not a like-for-like match with 2024 or 2022, in either direction.
Election Day voters lean differently from early voters, and late mail ballots are still arriving.

Who's voting early, by primary history →

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